Research and analysis firm IDATE predicts that the total number of mobile customers worldwide will exceed eight billion by the end of 2018. At the same time, SON (Self-Optimising Network) solutions provider Cellwize warns that this surge could push some networks into severe congestion, causing failure rates for IoT and M2M applications to rise to 30% or more.
IDATE forecasts more than 21% growth in mobile users over five years, reaching around eight billion by 2019. In the UK, mobile subscriptions are projected to increase from 85.3 million in 2013 to 86.6 million in 2018. Fixed broadband subscriptions are also expected to grow, though more slowly, with an estimated 18% rise between 2013 and 2018.
Connected devices are expanding rapidly as well. A Cellwize whitepaper estimates roughly 26 billion IoT units by 2020. The report highlights a key challenge: although many networks now support 3G and 4G, a significant number of legacy devices still rely on 2G and cannot be replaced quickly for logistical reasons. While 3G and 4G offer greater capacity, coverage gaps force carriers to fall back to 2G networks that may not handle the increased traffic. This can cause IoT and M2M services to miss SLAs (Service Level Agreements) and degrade performance.
Failures in IoT/M2M communication can have serious consequences in several critical areas, including medical monitoring, fleet and asset management, and mobile card payments. In these cases the impacts range from financial losses to threats to safety and health.
“M2M and IoT technology has grown rapidly, but some mobile networks have not evolved,” said Ofir Zemer, CEO of Cellwize. “With IoT expected to increase 2G data traffic, operators must optimize and manage capacity across all access networks to ensure subscribers continue to receive reliable service.”
The broader telecoms market is also growing. Total global telecoms revenue is projected to climb from €1.19 trillion in 2013 to €1.34 trillion in 2018, driven by average annual growth of about 2.5%. Traditional landline use continues to decline as VoIP services and mobile alternatives replace it, increasing the load on both mobile and fixed networks. Mobile service revenue represents the largest portion of the market and is forecast to reach €826 billion by 2018, a rise of roughly 17% over five years.
Given the converging pressures of rising subscriber numbers, expanding IoT deployments, legacy 2G dependence, and shifting traffic patterns, operators face a critical need to modernize network management. Priorities include implementing self-optimising network technologies, expanding capacity where required, improving fall-back strategies between radio access technologies, and applying priority or quality-of-service controls for critical M2M communications. Proactive planning, targeted upgrades, and intelligent traffic management can reduce the risk of service disruptions and protect mission-critical applications.
How do you think the industry should prevent a capacity crunch? Share your thoughts in the comments.