The mobile industry in Sub-Saharan Africa, a key driver of the region’s digital transformation, is projected to increase its contribution to GDP from $140 billion in 2023 to $170 billion by 2030.
This forecast, presented in the GSMA’s Mobile Economy Sub-Saharan Africa 2024 report, highlights how mobile technology underpins progress across healthcare, education, finance and other sectors. Expanding internet access and digital services will be central to delivering this economic growth.
The report notes that ongoing 4G network expansion will improve connectivity, with 4G expected to account for half of all mobile connections by 2030. Nevertheless, important obstacles remain.
Mobile industry challenges
Thirteen percent of the population still lacks network coverage, and a significant 60% usage gap persists among those within coverage areas. This gap is driven by factors such as the high cost of devices, limited digital skills, and concerns about online safety that prevent people from accessing online services.
Beyond connectivity issues, operators face high operating costs, inflationary pressures, and volatile energy prices. Emerging technologies—including generative AI and satellite partnerships—offer promising ways to help bridge these gaps.
Broader API initiatives, such as the GSMA Open Gateway which recently introduced security APIs in South Africa, are intended to strengthen digital security and simplify service delivery. Tackling these industry challenges is essential to unlocking the full socioeconomic benefits of mobile connectivity across Sub-Saharan Africa.
Angela Wamola, Head of Sub-Saharan Africa at GSMA, said: “Our findings this year reveal both the extraordinary potential and the challenges facing Sub-Saharan Africa’s mobile ecosystem.
“To fully realise the benefits of connectivity, it is essential for operators, policymakers, and stakeholders to address affordability barriers, support infrastructure expansion, and foster collaborations that drive digital inclusion and economic impact.”
Key findings:
- Persistent usage gap: Mobile internet penetration reached 27% by the end of 2023, yet a large usage gap of 60% remains. Millions of people live within coverage areas but are prevented from using mobile internet because of device costs, lack of digital skills, and concerns about online security. Globally, 3.1 billion people face similar barriers, making Sub-Saharan Africa the least connected region with the largest usage gap.
- Expanding 4G coverage and early 5G growth: With 4G adoption expected to reach 50% by 2030, it is set to overtake 3G as the dominant technology. Although still emerging, 5G is forecast to represent 17% of total connections by 2030, led by markets such as South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya.
- 5G economic impact and infrastructure needs: By 2030, 5G could contribute around $10 billion to the region’s economy, about 6% of the mobile sector’s total economic impact. The report recommends progressive spectrum policies—particularly releasing mid-band spectrum—to support sustainable growth and wider digital access. Additionally, 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is gaining traction as a primary broadband solution in countries like Angola, South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, helping deliver high-speed connections to underserved areas.
- Strengthening digital security: South Africa became the first country in the region to deploy GSMA Open Gateway APIs focused on fraud prevention and security, including Number Verification and SIM Swap APIs. These tools support regional efforts to improve digital security, particularly for digital banking services.
- Generative AI potential: Generative AI could contribute up to $1.5 trillion to Africa’s economy by 2030. Mobile operators are starting to use AI more widely for customer engagement and network optimisation, as demonstrated by companies like MTN and Vodacom. However, the region still faces a shortage of skilled AI professionals.
Critical reforms
The report recommends several priority reforms to promote digital inclusion and ensure sustainable growth in the Sub-Saharan Africa mobile sector:
- Affordability reforms: To reduce barriers to mobile access, the report advises lowering sector taxes, cutting import duties on handsets, and reducing activation fees so that mobile services become more affordable and accessible.
- Revitalised Universal Service Funds (USFs): Many USFs in the region are underperforming due to inefficiencies. Reforms should improve transparency, streamline disbursements, and direct funding toward initiatives with measurable impact, such as digital literacy programs in underserved communities.
- Progressive spectrum policy: With rising data demand, governments should free up additional spectrum—especially in the 6 GHz band—and adopt policies that enable efficient, affordable, and sustainable network expansion.
Business leaders and economists are increasingly optimistic about the region’s prospects. At the SAP Now event in Johannesburg, several speakers discussed the expanding opportunities across the continent.
Mteto Nyati, Chairman of Eskom, observed: “South Africa is slowly but surely experiencing an economic uptick, with improvements in both political and infrastructural stability.
“This has the potential to attract more foreign direct investment and build local economic confidence, giving the private sector—particularly technology leaders—the chance to prioritise transformation and development within their organisations.”
Zeph Nhleko, Chief Economist at the Development Bank of Southern Africa, added: “Addressing infrastructure deficits presents an opportunity for economic development across Africa. Public-private partnerships will be critical to driving growth on the continent.
“Private companies, together with their network partners, have a significant role to play in delivering connectivity solutions that will shape Africa’s future.”
See also: GSMA: Mobile internet remains inaccessible for 3.45B people
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