EU Anti-Dumping Probe Sparks Fears of Chinese Retaliation

News that the EU is preparing a major anti-dumping trade case against China—alleging that Chinese mobile manufacturers have benefited from illegal government subsidies—has been met with cautious reticence and silence from European technology leaders.

On Friday the Financial Times reported that the European Commission was poised to launch one of its largest trade investigations, saying officials had spent months gathering and verifying evidence.

EU sources indicated there was “very solid evidence” that companies such as Huawei and ZTE sold products in the EU at prices below cost because of state support, a practice known as dumping.

Officials say a formal case could be filed as early as next month, potentially exposing Chinese firms to anti-dumping duties or penalty tariffs on imports into the EU.

In a response to media reports, Huawei issued a brief statement denying it benefited from illegal state subsidies and objecting to the reported investigation. “Huawei also objects to the investigation that the European Commission is reportedly launching on the basis of these claims,” the company said.

After the United States, China is the EU’s largest trading partner, but the partnership is often strained. Earlier this month, following a report titled “China: Unbalanced Trade?”, EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht told the European Parliament that “the list of issues we need to address with China grows longer.”

De Gucht also warned that many European firms are reluctant to file legitimate trade defence complaints because they fear repercussions for their business ties with China.

Industry and policy analysts worry the Commission’s move could provoke a retaliatory response from Beijing.

Ericsson is the only major European company to comment publicly so far. Ulf Persson, head of government and industry relations at Ericsson, sought to distance the company from the probe and criticized the Commission’s approach. Persson said that any case likely to result in punitive import tariffs is the wrong path.

“Ericsson is a strong supporter of free trade and we don’t believe in this type of unilateral measure,” he said, adding that targeting specific Chinese firms risks triggering “a negative spiral.”

The investigation would also mark an unusual step for the Commission: officials have suggested the Commission is considering initiating the case on its own authority rather than acting in response to an industry complaint. “The EU commission is acting on its own initiative here,” Persson noted, “without having received a request for action from the industry.”

Ericsson’s caution reflects its commercial interests in China, where it seeks future contracts and engagement in a rapidly developing market. Persson said Ericsson prefers “global rules that apply for all industry players,” pointing to ongoing talks between the United States and China on guidelines for state-supported export-credit financing.

“We would rather see the EU taking active steps to join these talks,” he said, suggesting that multilateral negotiations could be a more constructive route than unilateral enforcement.

Launching a high-profile trade case amid Europe’s deepest economic turmoil since World War II carries notable risks. The move could exacerbate tensions at a time when China is expected to account for roughly €500 billion in trade with Europe this year. Observers are left asking whether the EU is needlessly provoking Beijing—or whether both sides have enough at stake to seek a more measured resolution.