New research indicates China will dominate the global gigabit broadband market, with the United States trailing and Europe in second place.
A report from Rethink Technology forecasts that by 2023, 57% of worldwide gigabit broadband connections will be in China; when the rest of Asia is included, that share rises to 68%.
Europe is expected to account for roughly 18% of gigabit connections, North America about 11%, and Latin America just 3%.
Over 42% of Chinese households are projected to have access to 1 Gbps services, driven by large-scale network deployments led by China Mobile and other major carriers. That penetration is especially notable given China’s population of around 1.4 billion compared with North America’s roughly 364 million.
The report anticipates that most regions will rely primarily on fiber technologies for gigabit delivery, while the United States is likely to continue depending heavily on DOCSIS 3.1 over existing cable infrastructure.
Rethink points out that countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany and many in Latin America will lag in gigabit adoption in percentage terms.
One factor holding back rapid deployment in countries like the US is market structure: a small number of large private broadband providers often avoid direct competition, resulting in localised monopolies. By contrast, China’s major state-owned telecom operators—China Telecom, China Unicom and China Mobile—are pursuing aggressive, nationwide build-outs aimed at delivering gigabit service to as many users as possible, and doing so quickly.
Cost remains the primary barrier to widespread gigabit uptake. Rethink expects that within roughly two years 1 Gbps broadband will become far more commonplace and affordable. As prices fall and providers expand availability, annual upgrade rates are forecast to rise from around 5% to approximately 8% over subsequent years.
The report also suggests that intermediate technologies designed to boost speeds over existing copper—such as G.fast—are likely to become short-lived solutions as more buildings and networks transition directly to full fiber connections.
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