When quantum computers finally step out into the real world, many of our current encryption methods could become useless. The question is not if, but when. Preparations must begin now, says Richard Ford at Integrity360.
There is a lot of discussion about quantum computers today — and it is no longer science fiction. Within a decade they could begin to break today’s encryption, sparking concerns about “Q-Day”: the moment quantum technology renders current defensive barriers ineffective.
Some researchers warn this could happen as early as the late 2020s. Even if that feels distant, organizations should already be preparing. Those that act now will be far better positioned when the day arrives.
Early cracks in encryption are appearing
In 2024 researchers in China drew attention when they managed to break a 22-bit RSA encryption — the same family of algorithms that underpins much of today’s internet traffic. The practical result was limited, but the demonstration showed quantum techniques can work in practice and that computational power is advancing rapidly.
When Q-Day arrives, large portions of today’s encryption could become obsolete overnight. That would have wide-ranging consequences for data security across banking and government systems, cloud services, and industrial networks.
Current encryption relies on mathematical problems that are extremely hard for classical computers to solve, such as factoring very large numbers. Quantum computers operate fundamentally differently. They can manage multiple states simultaneously and perform computations with a speed and complexity previously unattainable.
As a result, they will eventually be able to break the algorithms that form the backbone of our digital world.
The time to act is now
The message from security experts is clear: wise organizations should begin their transition today. Traditional encryption methods that have been secure for decades are at risk of becoming vulnerable.
Many systems still rely on outdated technology. Analyses show that as much as 83 percent of server-based SSH protocols use versions older than 2020. This illustrates how far behind some organizations are in their security thinking.
To stay ahead, companies and public agencies must start planning for quantum-resistant encryption now. Work to develop such solutions is well underway. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is leading efforts to standardize post-quantum cryptography and has already finalized three algorithms considered quantum-safe.
Organizations are encouraged to adopt these standards gradually — not as a rushed response but as part of a long-term security strategy.
An advantage for early adopters
A new wave of innovation in cybersecurity is coming. Demand for quantum-safe products and services is already growing, and proactive organizations will be better equipped to protect their data. Those that delay risk being unprepared when Q-Day arrives.
This applies to both service builders and users:
- For developers and vendors, it means reviewing how applications, infrastructure, and data storage are designed. Systems should be modular and flexible so encryption methods can be swapped without disrupting operations. A particular challenge is already-encrypted data: will organizations need to decrypt and re-encrypt terabytes of information to ensure continued protection?
- For customers and procurement teams, start asking suppliers: How far along are they in implementing quantum-resistant solutions? Do they have a migration plan? Microsoft launched its own “Quantum Safe” initiative in 2023 aiming to make its services quantum-resistant. While large vendors may have the resources to move quickly, many other providers may not follow at the same pace.
Fragile but fast-evolving technology
There are still substantial technical hurdles before quantum computers become commonplace. Qubits, the basic building blocks of quantum computers, are unstable and require precise environments to function. They exist in a superposition, meaning they can be both zero and one at once. Maintaining quantum coherence — a delicate state necessary for calculations — can be disrupted by tiny changes in temperature, electromagnetic fields, or even single particles.
In 2024 researchers managed for the first time to sustain quantum coherence at room temperature — but only for 100 nanoseconds. That highlights how far there is to go before quantum computers become stable enough for large-scale use.
Still, progress is rapid. Research, investment, and international collaboration have accelerated dramatically, and many experts believe Q-Day could arrive sooner than expected.
Richard Ford, Chief Technology Officer at Integrity360