Researchers at CCS Insight have published a report forecasting that Europe may lag behind the U.S. and China in the initial rollout of 5G mobile networks.
The firm projects that the United States and China will lead early adoption of next-generation mobile technology. Initial commercial 5G deployments are expected in the U.S. this year, while China is forecast to surpass other regions in total 5G connections by 2020.
CCS Insight’s view that the U.S. will take an early lead aligns with a recent GSMA analysis reported by Telecoms Tech News, though the two research houses differ on how regions will rank through 2025.
In the GSMA forecast, China is placed behind Europe by 2025, with about 25 percent of mobile connections using 5G. In that scenario, Europe reaches roughly 31 percent, Japan about 45 percent, and the United States leads with around 49 percent.
Kester Mann, Principal Analyst for operators at CCS Insight, commented on the market dynamics:
“The industry might be struggling to establish the business models for investment in 5G, but this isn’t stopping leading operators battling for bragging rights to launch the first networks. Competitive forces and the need for capacity are the leading drivers of early deployment, although we caution this could set unrealistic expectations for initial network capability.”
The CCS Insight forecast indicates that 5G adoption will remain modest until 2021, when a meaningful ramp-up is expected.
“We see the first 5G smartphones emerging in 2019, but these will be relatively few in number,” said Marina Koytcheva, VP of Forecasting at CCS Insight. “The real ramp-up will come in 2021 when over 350 million 5G handsets will be sold worldwide.”
According to CCS Insight, the main driver for early 5G uptake will be consumer demand for faster speeds and greater bandwidth to support video and streaming services, rather than immediate mass adoption of advanced use cases such as autonomous vehicles or remote healthcare. Even by 2025, mobile broadband is expected to account for the vast majority of 5G connections.
Do you agree with CCS Insight’s predictions for 5G rollout? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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