Two independent studies from Nielsen and Canalys indicate that the BRIC markets — Brazil, Russia, India and China — are poised for rapid expansion in smartphone adoption and related industry activity.
Canalys’s analysis highlights China as the dominant force: the country’s smartphone market is expanding so quickly that it is expected to be nearly twice the size of the United States market this year. The report’s central recommendation for mobile operators is clear: capitalize on growth in emerging markets now, before rivals secure stronger positions.
Canalys projects China will absorb approximately 240 million smartphone units, representing about 29% of global smartphone shipments, compared with an estimated 125 million units in the United States for 2013.
China already leads global smartphone shipments, having overtaken the U.S. in the first quarter of 2012. Canalys attributes this surge to the rapid adoption of low-cost Android devices, which has “drastically accelerated the decline of feature phones.” The firm also anticipates similar transitions in other emerging markets, including other BRIC countries, as consumers shift from feature phones to affordable smartphones.
According to Canalys, developing markets are expected to contribute between 70% and 80% of global smartphone growth this year. Notably, no developed market appears among the top 20 new growth markets for 2013, underscoring that the primary expansion will occur in less mature regions.
The report also forecasts that more Chinese vendors will expand overseas in 2013, following the international moves by companies such as Huawei and ZTE. This outward push reflects a broader trend across China’s technology sector: for example, recent partnerships between Chinese firms and foreign providers have begun to appear as companies pursue growth beyond domestic demand.
Jingwen Wang, a Canalys research analyst, commented on the overseas push: “Only a few Chinese smartphone makers currently have comprehensive or long-term international expansion plans. Their immediate goals are pragmatic: achieve economies of scale, utilize production capacity, and improve margins, since pricing pressure tends to be lower in some overseas markets.”
Nielsen’s research supplies complementary insights into smartphone readiness and consumer preferences within BRIC nations. Among the four countries, China appears the most advanced: Nielsen reports that roughly two-thirds of mobile subscribers in China use smartphones, with smaller shares using feature phones or multimedia-capable feature phones. The study notes, however, that its online-only methodology may underrepresent rural populations, potentially inflating smartphone penetration figures.
Brazil presents a more mixed picture. Nielsen found a diverse distribution of device types there, with a significant portion of users still on feature phones alongside a growing smartphone segment. India, by contrast, showed the lowest smartphone penetration in the BRIC group: a large majority of mobile subscribers remain on feature phones, while only a modest share use smartphones or multimedia phones.
Taken together, the Canalys and Nielsen reports emphasize China’s central role in current smartphone growth and signal broader opportunities across BRIC and other emerging markets. Operators, device makers and retailers face strategic choices: accelerate market entry and distribution in fast-growing regions, adapt product portfolios to meet demand for low-cost Android devices, and prepare for increased competition from Chinese vendors expanding abroad.
Questions remain about how far BRIC smartphone markets can grow. Much will depend on reducing device and service costs, improving mobile network coverage in rural areas, localizing apps and services, and building sustainable distribution and support models. If these conditions improve, the BRIC markets could account for a substantial share of global smartphone adoption in the coming years, reshaping manufacturer strategies and the competitive landscape worldwide.