5G is currently the leading topic in telecommunications, with multiple milestones already achieved across the UK, the US and beyond. Major vendors are also planning ahead—Samsung has started early-stage research into 6G—while industry analysts are revising their forecasts as deployments accelerate. Ericsson’s latest Mobility Report, for example, now expects 5G subscriptions to reach 1.9 billion by 2024 as operators continue to roll out services.
The Mobility Report highlights the rapid early momentum behind 5G and attributes the forecast uplift to strong market uptake and operator enthusiasm. “As market after market switches on 5G, we are at a truly momentous point in time,” the report states. It argues that no previous generation of mobile technology has offered the same potential to stimulate economic growth as 5G.
Ericsson estimates that 5G technologies will be accessible to roughly 45% of the global population by the end of 2024. The company calls this a conservative figure, noting that coverage could expand to as much as 65% if spectrum-sharing technologies enable 5G deployments within existing LTE frequency bands.
Wider 5G adoption will have a direct effect on mobile data consumption. The report finds that total mobile data traffic continued to rise sharply at the start of 2019 and is projected to reach 131 exabytes (EB) per month by the end of the five-year forecast period. This growth is expected to coincide with the emergence of large-scale Internet of Things (IoT) deployments—what the report terms “massive IoT.” Sectors poised to gain include utilities through smart metering, healthcare via medical wearables, and transport with pervasive tracking sensors. Ericsson projects that just over one-third (35%) of total mobile data traffic will travel over 5G networks by the end of the forecast window.
In the nearer term, Ericsson expects more than 10 million 5G subscriptions globally by the end of 2019, reflecting the initial commercial launches and consumer interest in the new technology.
“5G is definitely taking off and at a rapid pace. This reflects the service providers’ and consumers’ enthusiasm for the technology,” said Fredrik Jejdling, Ericsson EVP and head of networks. “5G will have a positive impact on people’s lives and businesses, realizing benefits that extend beyond IoT and the Fourth Industrial Revolution.”
Jejdling also stressed that the full advantages of 5G depend on a robust ecosystem. “The full benefits of 5G can only be reaped with the establishment of a solid ecosystem in which technology, regulatory, security, and industry partners all have a part to play,” he added.
The full Ericsson Mobility Report provides further detail on these forecasts and market insights and is available from the publisher in PDF format.
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