A report commissioned by Huawei and produced by Assembly Research examines the potential costs to the UK economy and society from delaying the nationwide 5G rollout.
In July, the UK government announced a ban on Huawei equipment in national telecoms networks. That decision has been widely acknowledged—even by government sources—as likely to slow the 5G rollout and increase its costs.
Matthew Howett, Principal Analyst and Founder of Assembly Research, warned:
“The Government’s own expectation of its restrictions on Huawei is for up to a three-year delay in 5G rollout.
The risk, of course, is that this will be felt by operators being forced to concentrate deployments in more profitable urban centres, and that would inevitably mean it takes longer to reach, and fully cover, more rural and remote parts of Britain with 5G.
If this plays out there is a risk of a widened digital divide.”
Assembly Research’s analysis estimates the delay could prevent the UK from capturing as much as £108 billion in economic benefit. The report also suggests that as many as 350,000 jobs could have been created across regions outside London and the South East over the next decade. Those jobs would span both white-collar and blue-collar roles and would not be confined to traditional tech hubs.
On a household level, the report projects the delay could cost each household more than £6,000 on average by the end of the decade. Beyond direct economic impacts, a slower rollout would restrict innovations expected to improve many aspects of daily life, including remote healthcare services, smart manufacturing, robotics, and enhanced support for at-home learning.
The report also describes broader social benefits from faster 5G deployment, noting that increased availability of high-quality connectivity can act as a social equaliser. Improved mobile broadband could expand access to remote learning and help mitigate shortages of frontline professionals such as GPs and teachers by enabling more effective remote services.
Victor Zhang, Vice President of Huawei, commented on the findings:
“The UK government has set ambitious targets for improved connectivity by 2025.
This research reveals how a 3-year delay in 5G rollout will have a significant economic impact on every part of the UK and highlights the consequences of failing to realise Britain’s full potential.
Without global 5G leadership, Britain faces relegation to the digital slow lane, a job-creation black hole and a wider digital divide.”
Huawei’s warning that the UK risks falling behind digitally is not new. However, opinions differ within the industry. In August, a poll of 3,000 professionals conducted by The Chartered Institute for IT (BCS) found that more than half of respondents did not accept Huawei’s claim that the ban would severely damage the country’s digital prospects or necessarily raise consumer bills.
Dr Bill Mitchell OBE, Director of Policy at BCS, said that the notion Huawei’s removal would thrust the UK into a “dark age” looks like hubris to many IT professionals. Indeed, a majority of those surveyed argued that removing Huawei equipment from national mobile and broadband networks would enhance the UK’s security.
A full copy of Assembly Research’s report commissioned by Huawei is available in PDF form through the publisher’s release.
(Photo by Steve Smith on Unsplash)
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