Vendors and operators across the UK are closely watching China as it prepares to launch commercial 5G networks by 2020 and is forecast to become the world’s largest 5G market by 2025.
A recent report from GSMA Intelligence and the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) projects that after a phased two-year testing period and commercial deployment beginning in 2020, China will have approximately 428 million 5G connections by 2025. That would represent about 39% of the global total of 1.1 billion 5G connections anticipated by that year.
The promises of 5G
Initially, China’s 5G networks are expected to focus on expanding the capacity of existing 4G networks to meet surging mobile data demand. 5G will enable enhanced mobile broadband services such as Ultra-HD video streaming, augmented reality and virtual reality experiences. These new services will require more capable mobile devices than many currently in the market, so smartphones are likely to be the primary way consumers access 5G at launch.
Yet the significance of 5G extends far beyond higher data rates, improved spectral efficiency, ultra-low latency or support for massive device deployments. The core appeal of 5G is that it treats the entire infrastructure as a flexible platform for innovation—capable of adapting to different use cases and delivering tailored services for distinct needs.
Over time, 5G will move beyond consumer applications and create extensive opportunities in the enterprise sector, which is expected to represent the largest revenue stream for operators. Chinese carriers are already collaborating with industry verticals and the wider mobile ecosystem to develop use cases and services that leverage 5G’s capabilities.
The need for open interfaces
While spectrum allocation and new business models are crucial to realizing the promise of 5G, protecting investment in radio infrastructure will also influence how quickly operators adopt the technology. A flexible, innovative, open-sourced Radio Access Network (RAN) is a central pillar in the evolution to 5G.
Software-defined, cloud-native RAN solutions built on open interfaces enable communications service providers to reduce infrastructure costs by using common hardware and software-based models. This approach can lower barriers to entry, foster innovation, and accelerate deployment.
Historically, RAN architectures were intended to be open but, in practice, have been dominated by a small set of vendors. As the sector evolves, operators are seeking alternative suppliers that can introduce new approaches—particularly those that use software-driven models to support enterprise use cases and network densification. Major suppliers such as Nokia, Ericsson and Huawei have similar legacy approaches, creating demand for contenders that prioritize software modularity and openness in the radio domain.
This pressure has pushed suppliers to open interfaces that previously limited industry growth and constrained radio technology innovation, antenna advancements, and optimal cell site placement. The existing vendor control can lead to suboptimal spectrum use and higher cost per user for 5G business cases. In response, groups like xRAN have formed to promote open interfaces so operators and regulators can make better use of resources and deliver greater value to customers. As the traditional RAN equipment market faces decline, service providers may benefit from engaging with disruptive players in the open RAN ecosystem rather than relying solely on legacy vendors that face profitability and cost-control challenges.
It is also notable that the 3GPP standardization process—often shaped by large incumbents—has led to the rise of external working groups and bodies that pursue open standards more rapidly, such as XRAN, TIP and ONAP. While these initiatives accelerate innovation, stakeholders must balance the drive for openness with the need for technical diversity and avoid fragmenting standards in ways that undermine broad interoperability and economic opportunity for a wider vendor community.
China, alongside the United States, is at the forefront of developing and deploying 5G networks and is poised to dominate parts of the market within a few years of rollout.
Operators and vendors in the UK and elsewhere should study China’s progress and prioritize technologies and services that maximize operational efficiency and create new revenue streams in the 5G era.
To realize 5G’s full potential, networks must maximize bandwidth and flexibility by adopting open interfaces and software-defined approaches across the infrastructure.