A new report commissioned by Ericsson highlights the significant economic potential of 5G deployment across 15 emerging markets. Conducted by Analysys Mason, the study evaluates how 5G could affect national economies, industries, social inclusion and environmental outcomes in Bangladesh, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, Pakistan, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey.
Analysys Mason’s analysis shows that with supportive government and regulatory frameworks, each of these countries could see an uplift in GDP of roughly 0.3 to 0.46 percent as a direct result of 5G adoption. Those gains reflect realistic, country-specific scenarios that consider current infrastructure, sector composition and plausible technology adoption pathways.
Andrew Lloyd, Head of Government and Policy Advocacy at Ericsson, commented on the findings:
“This Analysys Mason Future Value of Mobile in Emerging Markets report provides a detailed breakdown, based on comprehensive research into realistic and achievable scenarios in each of the 15 countries, of the potential economic, social, environmental, and national benefits of 5G in these markets. With the backing of governments, regulators, and policymakers, each of these 15 countries – and their citizens – stand to benefit significantly from 5G connectivity. In addition to economic benefits, 5G can also reduce climate impact, increase social inclusion, wellbeing, and tackle the digital divide in areas where fixed infrastructure availability is poor.”
The study estimates the initial cost to deploy 5G networks in each country will range between $3 billion and $8 billion. Extending nationwide coverage may require an additional 20–35 percent investment. Despite this upfront spend, the report finds that the long-term economic returns from wider industrial adoption and service innovation are expected to outweigh the coverage extension costs by a factor of three to seven.
Agriculture is highlighted as a particularly important beneficiary across these markets. In many of the countries studied, agriculture represents up to 10 percent of GDP, and 5G-enabled Internet of Things (IoT) applications can drive efficiency improvements in farming operations, supply chains and resource management. The report predicts that industrial IoT (IIoT) solutions will account for the majority—around 85–90 percent—of the total economic benefits in each market, delivered through gains in productivity, automation and data-driven decision making.
Janette Stewart, Partner at Analysys Mason, emphasized the role of spectrum policy in unlocking these benefits:
“The study highlights the benefits from having the right spectrum available for 5G deployment, both for geographic coverage – for which the low-bands are very suitable – and in the 3.5GHz band where most of the high-capacity 5G deployments in other markets are already taking place.”
Expanded mid-band coverage emerges as a critical enabler: analysts estimate that mid-band 5G could deliver as much as 80 percent of the economic value identified. Low-band spectrum is important for broad geographic coverage, including rural areas, while mid-band spectrum supports the capacity and latency characteristics needed for many industrial and enterprise applications.
To help governments and regulators capture the full value of 5G, the report offers practical policy and regulatory recommendations to accelerate deployment and stimulate demand across sectors. Key recommendations include:
- Treat 5G as national infrastructure with a clear strategy and roadmap that aligns public and private investment.
- Adopt spectrum policies that enable timely, affordable and broad-based 5G deployments, including allocation of low- and mid-band frequencies suitable for coverage and capacity.
- Simplify infrastructure permitting and site upgrade processes to reduce rollout time and cost.
- Collaborate with communications service providers to extend coverage in areas where purely commercial models are unlikely to deliver full connectivity, including rural and underserved communities.
- Support industrial adoption of 5G by promoting pilot projects, public procurement incentives and partnerships that demonstrate productivity gains in manufacturing, agriculture and logistics.
- Promote public sector use cases and highlight the environmental benefits of 5G solutions, such as improved energy efficiency, smarter transport systems and precision agriculture that reduce resource use.
The report stresses that coordinated action across government agencies, regulators and industry stakeholders is essential. When policies, spectrum allocation and infrastructure strategies are aligned, countries can maximize the social, economic and environmental returns from 5G investments while narrowing the digital divide where fixed-line infrastructure is limited.
A full copy of the “Future Value of Mobile in Emerging Markets” report is available from Ericsson’s reports and papers. The study offers country-level breakdowns and scenario analyses that can help policymakers prioritize actions to accelerate 5G deployment and harness its benefits for industry, agriculture, public services and inclusive growth.
(Photo by Chetan Kolte on Unsplash)
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