Ericsson’s latest Mobility Report forecasts substantial growth for 5G and mobile data traffic over the coming years. By the end of 2023, the company anticipates one billion 5G subscriptions and global mobile data traffic exceeding 100 exabytes per month.
The report predicts 5G coverage will reach over 20% of the world’s population by the end of 2023, with early deployments concentrated in countries such as the United States, South Korea, Japan and China. Regionally, North America is expected to lead in 5G adoption and account for roughly 37% of all mobile subscriptions in the region by 2023. Western Europe is projected to reach about 16% adoption by the same year.
Ericsson also projects that LTE will remain the dominant mobile access technology through the near term. Between 2017 and 2023, mobile LTE subscriptions are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 13%, reaching approximately 5.47 billion subscriptions. Overall mobile broadband subscriptions are forecast to increase from 5.16 billion to about 8.45 billion by 2023, while total worldwide mobile subscriptions are expected to peak near 9.12 billion at a CAGR of roughly 3%.
Smartphone adoption will continue to rise globally, but growth is forecast to slow in more mature markets. In North America and Western Europe, smartphone subscriptions are projected to reach roughly 390 million and 480 million respectively by 2023, growing at estimated CAGRs of 4% and 3%. Faster expansion is expected across South-East Asia, Oceania, the Middle East and Africa (including Sub-Saharan Africa), where CAGRs are forecast at double-digit rates.
Alongside the raw numbers, Ericsson published supporting articles to offer context and explore trends shaping future networks. One article highlights how younger consumers—particularly millennials—are influencing service expectations and driving demand for more advanced digital networks. As mobile broadband networks improve and consumers encounter richer services enabled by 5G, their expectations are expected to continue evolving.
The report suggests operators that prepare for 5G and respond to these evolving demands have an opportunity to build greater trust and secure increased customer loyalty from these user groups.
Ericsson has been active in numerous 5G initiatives in recent months. Operators such as Swisscom and Entel have engaged Ericsson’s services as they advance toward gigabit LTE and 5G-capable networks. In October, Ericsson also published a “5G readiness” survey showing that more than three-quarters of participating operators were trialling 5G during the year—an increase from 32% the previous year—indicating growing industry momentum behind the new technology.
The full Mobility Report provides additional detail and analysis on these trends, regional outlooks, and technology forecasts.