New data from mobile industry analyst GSMA Intelligence indicates that 5G connections are set to double over the next two years, driven by technological innovation and the launch of new 5G networks in more than 30 countries during 2023.
Among those new networks, an estimated 15 will be 5G Standalone (SA) deployments.
GSMA Intelligence’s forecasts point to a robust expansion in both consumer subscribers and enterprise adoption. Consumer 5G connections surpassed one billion at the end of 2022 and are projected to reach about 1.5 billion during 2023, climbing to around two billion by the end of 2025. This rapid uptake confirms 5G as the fastest generational roll-out in history when compared with 3G and 4G.
As of January 2023, there were 229 commercially launched 5G networks globally and more than 700 different 5G smartphone models available to consumers.
Opening up in emerging markets
Key markets across Asia-Pacific and Latin America — including Brazil and India — are also contributing to growth after recently launching 5G services. India is expected to be especially influential: with expansion from operators such as Airtel and Jio during 2023, GSMA Intelligence anticipates four commercial 5G networks in India by the end of 2025, adding roughly 145 million users.
Many of the markets rolling out 5G in 2023 are in developing regions across Africa — including countries like Ethiopia and Ghana — and parts of Asia. Currently, 5G adoption across sub-Saharan Africa sits below 1%, but it is forecast to exceed 4% by 2025 and reach roughly 16% by 2030. This growth is expected to result from coordinated efforts by industry and governments to expand connectivity.
“Until now, 5G adoption has been led by relatively mature markets and consumer use cases such as enhanced mobile broadband, but that is changing. We are now entering a second wave for 5G that will bring the technology into a wider variety of markets and audiences,” said Peter Jarich, Head of GSMA Intelligence. “Extending 5G into new use cases and regions will challenge the mobile ecosystem to demonstrate that the technology is flexible enough to meet diverse needs in an inclusive and innovative way.”
The rise of 5G FWA
As of January 2023, more than 90 fixed broadband providers—most of them mobile operators—had launched commercial 5G-based fixed wireless access (FWA) services across over 48 countries. Roughly 40% of global commercial 5G launches currently include an FWA offering.
In the United States, T-Mobile added more than 500,000 5G FWA subscribers across Q4 2021 and Q1 2022 combined. The operator expects to reach eight million FWA customers by 2025, while Verizon targets five million for the same period. In India, operators like Jio have public ambitions to connect up to 100 million homes via 5G FWA, suggesting significant FWA growth worldwide in the coming years.
Most current 5G FWA deployments use mid-band frequencies in the 3.5–3.8 GHz range, but several operators are leveraging 5G mmWave spectrum to boost capacity and performance while relying on lower bands for broader coverage.
To date, only about 7% of 5G launches have used mmWave spectrum, but this share looks set to rise: 27% of recent spectrum allocations and 35% of trial deployments already involve mmWave bands. In 2023, ten additional countries were expected to assign mmWave spectrum for 5G—an important increase over the 22 countries that had assigned it previously. Spain received the first European mmWave allocation that year, and operators including Telefónica, Ericsson and Qualcomm demonstrated a commercial mmWave network at MWC Barcelona 2023.
Enterprise IoT driving growth
GSMA Intelligence also highlights enterprise customers as the main source of 5G revenue growth over the next decade. Business revenues already account for roughly 30% of total revenues for major operators on average, and that share could grow as digitization and enterprise use of mobile services expands. Edge computing and IoT represent significant opportunities: around 12% of operators have launched private wireless solutions, and that number is expected to rise alongside broader IoT deployments throughout 2023.
A further milestone for enterprises will be the commercial rollout of 5G Advanced around 2025. With enhancements focused on uplink performance, coverage, mobility and power efficiency, 5G Advanced aims to unlock new business use cases and revenue streams. GSMA’s Network Transformation survey found that half of operators expect to support commercial 5G Advanced networks within two years of its availability. While that timeline may be optimistic for some, it highlights a clear opportunity for the industry to prepare and capitalize on next-generation capabilities.
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