A new report from Dell’Oro Group predicts that the global Radio Access Network (RAN) market will remain in decline over the coming years.
Dell’Oro forecasts RAN revenues to fall at a compound annual rate of about 1% through 2024. This downturn follows a period of rapid expansion—roughly 40% growth between 2017 and 2021—driven largely by initial 5G network deployments.
After growth stabilised in 2022, the market is expected to contract more sharply in 2023, with India cited as a primary source of the reduction after previously being one of the strongest RAN markets. Beyond 2023, the firm anticipates more moderate declines through 2024.
“The big picture has not changed. Mobile broadband-based investments are now slowing, and the upside from new areas such as fixed wireless access and private wireless remains too small to alter the overall trend,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group.
Pongratz also noted that some operators may curb near-term capacity upgrades after deploying substantial mid-band 5G spectrum, which could further reduce RAN equipment demand.
Dell’Oro identified the Asia Pacific region as the most likely driver of the market decline over the next five years, while North America is expected to perform relatively better after experiencing steep drops during 2023.
The report further cautions that the rollout of 5G-Advanced networks is unlikely to trigger a major new wave of operator capital expenditure on RAN hardware.
Despite the overall downturn, Dell’Oro expects continued growth in several RAN segments, including 5G New Radio, fixed wireless access, mmWave, Massive MIMO, Open RAN, private wireless networks, small cells, and virtualised RAN technologies. However, the research group does not believe these gains will fully offset declines in legacy segments.
A full copy of the report is available from Dell’Oro Group (paywall).
(Photo by Trent Haaland on Unsplash)
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