Those who lived through the 2.5G–3G–HSDPA transition in technical or commercial roles may already be feeling a strong sense of déjà vu. If you haven’t, beware: you may be enjoying the “happiness of ignorance” without realizing it.
Believing that rolling out 4G networks will instantly make everything work seamlessly — carriers, hardware, software, uninterrupted live handovers between 3G and LTE, aligned technical and commercial roadmaps, and ready-made products and services — is overly optimistic.
For those of us who have worked on rollouts and earned a few grey hairs in the process, this is just business as usual. We’ve grown accustomed to dismissing the spectacular press releases and attention-grabbing headlines that appear in our inboxes every morning.
Don’t get me wrong: I’m not a pessimist. I look forward to the day when everything works together smoothly. But that day is not tomorrow or the day after. Sure, LTE functions well in some places — parts of Dubai, several European countries and some US states — but there is still a long road before LTE becomes a ubiquitous, seamless broadband experience everywhere.
We are seeing the same kinds of futuristic promises now that we saw back in 2005: always-on cars that keep passengers connected for high-quality multimedia streaming, flawless video conferencing, and then the inevitable rise of home automation — coffee makers syncing with toasters, smart flea collars opening pet doors, and freezers emailing owners for de-icing.
Frankly, I remain skeptical. 3G taught us important lessons: don’t overestimate the network, consider how well devices deliver content and for how long before overheating or running out of battery, and remember that success depends on how well technical and commercial teams work together. Too often, commercial teams imagine a cruise ship while the technical reality is closer to a small dinghy that barely floats — and comes with buckets.
That’s the phase LTE appears to be in now. Marketing teams are doing their job: conceptualizing, collaborating with engineers, and preparing to launch enticing products and services. Some companies understandably want to showcase cutting-edge capabilities, releasing a few headline products to signal readiness to investors, early adopters, the board, and the market at large while keeping the brand image polished for competitors and customers.
As LTE networks mature and reach more people, the market will inevitably introduce countless services and devices for both business and retail customers. A small number will succeed, but many will fail — due to hardware or network constraints, pricing issues, poor execution, or simply bad ideas.
So yes, it’s early days. While brainstorming services and products is part of my everyday life, I’m not convinced I need a freezer that emails me for de-icing. I remain cautious about embracing every new convenience. I still remember a slogan I once saw painted on a wall beside an electronics shop during my student years: “Their civilization ends quickly with a power cut.” It’s a blunt reminder to think about dependencies and resilience.
Learn more about the realities and opportunities of LTE at the LTE conference, part of Telecoms Tech World, on 4–5 June.