The GSMA warns that future 6G mobile networks—destined to support smart cities, advanced logistics, and distributed workforces—will face significant spectrum shortages unless action is taken now.
The GSMA’s analysis finds that cities home to more than half of the world’s urban population could run into capacity constraints by 2030 if the availability of mid-band spectrum does not increase. This projection places spectrum planning squarely on the agenda of enterprise leaders preparing for a 6G future.
The shift to 6G represents a structural change in how data is generated, transmitted and consumed. With commercial 6G rollouts anticipated around 2030, the industry is identifying requirements today to avoid congestion that could impede economic activity and digital innovation.
GSMA forecasts the mobile traffic demand trajectory
Assessing urgency means looking beyond subscriber counts to the changing nature of traffic. While continued migration to 5G will sustain near-term growth of roughly 15–20 percent per year, the most acute long-term pressure stems from evolving user behaviour and more demanding enterprise applications.
At present, a small group of “power users” — about 10 percent of mobile subscribers — accounts for 60–70 percent of total network traffic. As younger, data-hungry generations mature and enterprises deploy more data-intensive services, these heavy consumption patterns are expected to spread more broadly across the user base.
By 2040, GSMA Intelligence projects that 6G will support over five billion connections, roughly half of all mobile connections worldwide. Global mobile data demand could reach about 1,700 exabytes per month in a conservative scenario, or approach 4,000 exabytes in a high-growth scenario driven by mass adoption of extended reality (XR), AI-enabled services, and other bandwidth-intensive innovations. Adequate spectrum will be essential for meeting that demand.
For enterprise decision-makers, the composition of future traffic is especially important. Unlike today’s download-heavy consumer usage dominated by video streaming, many enterprise applications will drive intensive uplink requirements.
Applications such as generative-AI video processing, real-time machine vision for autonomous logistics, and holographic communications require robust two-way data flows. In high-growth scenarios, uplink traffic could rise to roughly 35 percent of total network load by 2040, prompting a structural rethink of network symmetry and capacity planning.
A critical point for operational planning is that spectrum shortages will be highly localised, affecting major economic hubs first.
The GSMA’s analysis shows that spectrum needs are driven by peak-hour demand in the most congested locations. Traffic density in dense urban centres is typically nine times greater than in average urban areas and nearly 700 times greater than in rural regions. An illustrative study of 10 countries found that 83 percent of traffic is concentrated in urban areas that occupy only about five percent of landmass.
This concentration creates a distinct risk profile for businesses operating in dense metropolitan zones. Without additional spectrum, those areas will suffer service degradation even under modest annual traffic growth.
For a logistics provider depending on real-time fleet telemetry or a financial firm running latency-sensitive trading systems, congestion in specific urban corridors translates directly into operational and financial risk.
6G spectrum gap, the 2 GHz target, and technical evolution
To address these risks, the mobile industry is advocating for a major expansion of mid-band spectrum—frequencies roughly between 1 GHz and 10 GHz that balance coverage and capacity—targeted for 6G networks.
John Giusti, Chief Regulatory Officer at the GSMA, summed up the challenge: “This study shows that the 6G era will require three times more mid-band spectrum than is available today. Satisfying these spectrum requirements will support robust and sustainable connectivity, deliver digital ambitions, and help economies grow.”
Modelling in the report indicates a global average requirement of 2–3 GHz of mid-band spectrum in urban areas during 2035–2040, rising to 2.5–4 GHz in higher-demand markets. Since many markets currently allocate around 1 GHz of mid-band spectrum to mobile services, an additional 1–3 GHz of bandwidth will be necessary in many countries.
The timeline is tighter than the 2040 horizon implies. To avoid congestion when early 6G services launch, regulators should aim to make around 2 GHz of mid-band spectrum available by 2030. Candidate bands for this expansion include 3.8–4.2 GHz, 4.4–4.99 GHz, and the upper 6 GHz band (6.425–7.125 GHz). Looking further ahead, 7.125–8.4 GHz is being considered to support peak 6G demand.
Spectrum allocation is only one side of the capacity equation; improving network efficiency is equally important. Operators will deploy advanced techniques to extract more capacity from existing airwaves.
Integrating AI into the Radio Access Network (AI-RAN) is expected to boost spectral efficiency by roughly 10–20 percent. Deploying 6G in upper 6 GHz and 7–8 GHz bands, together with advanced Massive MIMO and beamforming, should also yield efficiency improvements compared with current 3.5 GHz deployments.
Nevertheless, technology alone cannot close the gap. The report assumes widespread adoption of multi-RAT spectrum sharing (MRSS) by 2040, enabling operators to run 4G, 5G and 6G concurrently in the same bands. While MRSS is more efficient than static partitioning, it still depends on sufficient aggregate bandwidth. Even with aggressive densification—reducing inter-site distances to 200–800 metres in dense urban zones—existing spectrum limits will be reached.
Millimetre wave (mmWave) bands will play a supporting role, handling perhaps 5–10 percent of dense urban traffic. However, because mmWave has limited propagation range, it cannot serve as the primary citywide coverage layer and will instead be confined to localized high-capacity environments such as stadiums, transport hubs, or smart factories.
Navigating infrastructure volatility on the road to 6G mobile networks
For enterprise leaders, the GSMA’s Vision 2040 analysis is an early signal of potential infrastructure volatility. While 6G promises capabilities such as high-resolution network sensing and digital twins, the capacity required to support these innovations is not guaranteed without proactive spectrum policy and network planning.
Regional differences matter. High-demand markets like China, North America and the GCC are expected to see 6G penetration rates that exceed average global levels by 2040, while regions such as Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa are likely to adopt more slowly. Enterprises operating across borders should therefore maintain hybrid strategies that account for the long coexistence of 4G, 5G and 6G.
Executives should view the allocation of the upper 6 GHz band as a bellwether for future network performance. Markets that do not make this spectrum available to mobile services by 2030 will face a higher risk of congestion. In the meantime, organisations with operations in ultra-dense urban centres should audit their connectivity dependencies, plan for heavy uplink demands from AI and XR applications, and consider options such as private networks or Wi‑Fi offload to mitigate public network constraints.
Ultimately, the path to 6G is defined by spectrum availability. Without timely allocation and efficient use of mid-band frequencies, the next generation of mobile connectivity may simply lack the lanes needed to handle tomorrow’s traffic.
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