According to a new report from Digital TV Research, the number of fixed broadband households worldwide is projected to reach 745 million by 2017, up from 578 million at the end of 2012.
The report anticipates 167 million new fixed broadband households between 2012 and 2017. China and India together account for a large share of that growth, with China expected to add about 73 million households and India around 22 million. Considering there were 473 million fixed broadband households in 2010, this represents steady year-on-year expansion.
By 2017, China is predicted to have just over 250 million fixed broadband households, making it the largest market. The United States is forecast to remain second with approximately 100.9 million, followed by Japan (40.6 million), India (37.9 million) and Germany (30.4 million) in the top five.
Global fixed broadband household penetration is expected to rise to 49.2% by 2017, up from an estimated 40.3% at the end of 2012.
However, the report highlights stark differences in household penetration across countries. South Korea’s penetration is forecast at an exceptionally high 93.7% by 2017, while India and Indonesia are both predicted to be much lower, at around 14.0%. These gaps reflect differing market structures and policy environments; in India, for example, regulatory and spectrum issues have recently drawn scrutiny, affecting deployment and investment.
Broadband speeds and trends
The research also examined trends in broadband speeds alongside household growth. Other studies have noted wide local variations in connection speeds: a UK-based report from uSwitch documented significant discrepancies between streets, with the slowest measured download speed at just 0.132 Mbps.
On a global scale, Digital TV Research expects a notable shift toward higher fixed broadband speeds between 2012 and 2017. In 2012, an estimated 58% of fixed broadband connections were below 10 Mbps; by 2017 that proportion is forecast to fall to 31%, reflecting continued infrastructure upgrades and investment in higher-capacity networks.
The report further notes a substantial decline in households with very low speeds: the number of households with less than 2 Mbps is projected to fall dramatically, roughly halving to 71.7 million worldwide.
That global improvement has exceptions. India is expected to see the number of households with under 2 Mbps rise from 6.6 million to 11.4 million by 2017, reflecting uneven rollout and affordability challenges. Conversely, the United States is forecast to have virtually no households with speeds under 2 Mbps by 2017, as legacy slow connections are phased out.
Report author Simon Murray observed that the United States started from a relatively slow position on average broadband speeds but is set to make rapid progress. He noted that U.S. operators have been relatively slow to upgrade, but he expects a fast acceleration in average speeds—comparable to the past rapid adoption of digital services by cable operators—so that U.S. average speeds should rank among the highest by the end of the forecast period.
These findings underscore a broader industry trend: while global fixed broadband coverage and speeds are improving, progress is uneven across regions and countries. Investment, regulatory frameworks, incumbent technologies and competitive dynamics will continue to shape how quickly households gain access to faster, more reliable broadband.
Do you agree with these broadband forecasts?