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Ericsson’s latest Mobility Report projects a rapid rise in 5G adoption, estimating about 150 million subscribers will be using 5G by 2021 — roughly one year after the technology reaches the market. If realized, this pace of uptake would outstrip the rollout experienced with 4G, indicating a much faster transition to next-generation mobile networks.
Ericsson expects South Korea, Japan, China, and the United States to lead the initial wave of 5G adoption. A key driver of this swift uptake will be the proliferation of connected devices and the expanding role of the Internet of Things (IoT) across industries and urban infrastructure.
Rima Qureshi, Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer at Ericsson, emphasizes that 5G will deliver more than higher mobile speeds. “5G is about more than faster mobile services – it will enable new use cases related to the Internet of Things,” she says. “For example, Ericsson has built a prototype testbed that applies 5G networking functions and data analytics to public transport, helping to save resources, reduce congestion, and lower environmental impact. As 5G moves from vision to reality, ICT-driven transformation will accelerate across industries.”
The anticipated demands for bandwidth and low latency are driven by both the surge in connected devices and increasing mobile video consumption. Ericsson forecasts that average traffic per smartphone will climb roughly sixfold in North America and Europe. Specifically, data usage per active smartphone in North America is expected to rise from about 3.8 GB per month to 22 GB per month by 2021, while in Western Europe it could increase from 2 GB to 18 GB per month.
Mobile subscription growth remains strong: roughly 20 new mobile broadband subscriptions are activated every second, and that rate is expected to increase. Today, the total number of mobile subscriptions is approximately equal to the global population, underscoring the pervasive nature of mobile connectivity.
Key takeaways from the Ericsson Mobility Report include:
- Video dominates mobile data traffic: Global mobile data traffic is forecast to grow tenfold by 2021, with video projected to account for about 70 percent of total mobile traffic. In many networks, YouTube already contributes up to 70 percent of video traffic, while Netflix can represent as much as 20 percent of video traffic in markets where it’s available.
- Mainland China becomes the largest LTE market: By the end of 2015, Mainland China is expected to reach 350 million LTE subscriptions, representing nearly 35 percent of the global total at that time. Projections show China growing to around 1.2 billion LTE subscriptions by 2021.
- Africa’s connectivity expands rapidly: Mobile subscriptions in Africa doubled from about 500 million in 2010 to an estimated 1 billion by the end of 2015. This growth in connectivity supports broader financial inclusion efforts, as mobile money services take hold and provide access to financial tools for many previously unbanked people.
- ICT supports a low-carbon transition: Information and communications technology can drive significant reductions in energy use and greenhouse gas emissions across other industries. Ericsson estimates that ICT-enabled efficiency improvements could reduce emissions by up to 10 gigatonnes of CO2e by 2030 — roughly 15 percent of projected global emissions — an amount greater than the current combined carbon footprint of the US and EU.
The report highlights how 5G, combined with burgeoning IoT deployments and growing video demand, is poised to reshape mobile networks, urban services, and industry practices. As networks and services evolve, stakeholders across sectors can expect new opportunities to optimize resources, improve user experiences, and lower environmental impacts.
Are you surprised by the findings in Ericsson’s latest report? Share your thoughts in the comments.